Sales cooled, prices held — and builders just became your biggest competition. The 2-minute edition.
The San Diego Brief
THE MID-MONTH EDITION · OCTOBER 26, 2026
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THE SHORT VERSION
Three things worth your two minutes.
Since the first Brief, September’s numbers landed. The headline is a split screen: sales cooled sharply, prices didn’t. And the toughest competition for anyone selling right now isn’t another homeowner — it’s the builders. Here’s the picture, in three parts. |
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01 · THE LOCAL PICTURE
−12.2%
San Diego County home sales in September, versus a year earlier — roughly double California’s decline. And yet prices held:
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−6.5%
CALIFORNIA SALES, SEPTEMBER (YEAR OVER YEAR)
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$899,720
CALIFORNIA MEDIAN PRICE (+1.7% YEAR OVER YEAR)
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260,410
CALIFORNIA SALES (ANNUALIZED, SEPTEMBER)
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Source: California Association of Realtors, September 2026.
MY TAKE
That’s the lock-in effect: owners who might move are staying put, so there aren’t enough listings to push prices down with the volume. A seller hears “sales are falling” and braces for a discount the price data isn’t asking for. |
 Home sales change, year over year — September 2026. Source: California Association of Realtors, September 2026. |
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02 · THE BUILDER PROBLEM
Your real competition just cut its prices
In the NAHB’s October survey, 43% of builders said they cut prices — an average cut of 6% — and 65% were offering incentives on top. Builder confidence fell to 29, the lowest reading since 2012. These are national figures, not San Diego ones, but the direction matters here: a builder can trim the sticker and then use its own mortgage arm to buy a buyer’s rate down — lowering the monthly payment in a way an individual seller usually can’t match.
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43%
of builders cut prices in October — an average cut of 6%
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65%
OFFERING INCENTIVES
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29
BUILDER CONFIDENCE
LOWEST SINCE 2012
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So the pricing conversation has changed. Before pricing a resale today, it’s worth running the closest comparable new home the way a buyer actually sees it — at its reduced price and its bought-down monthly payment — and setting the resale against that number, not against sticker prices alone. Source: NAHB / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, October 2026. |
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03 · WHAT SELLERS WANT NOW
It’s not just the price anymore
Zillow’s 2026 Consumer Housing Report shows sellers’ priorities shifting: top dollar still leads at 52%, but a fast, certain timeline has climbed to 36% — and the listings getting chosen are the ones with a real marketing package behind them: professional photography, virtual tours, floor plans. More than 80% of clients now use AI somewhere in the process of buying or selling.
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52%
SELLERS’ TOP PRIORITY
TOP DOLLAR
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36%
WANT A FAST,
CERTAIN TIMELINE
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80%+
OF CLIENTS USE AI
IN THE PROCESS
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In a market where prices are holding but buyers have choices, presentation and a clear plan are the leverage — not a hope-and-see list price. Source: Zillow 2026 Consumer Housing Report. |
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ONE OFFER
Curious what your home would actually sell for in this market — against the builders, not just the neighbors? Get the number, then decide:
Or just reply to this email — I run the numbers personally and reply within one business day. Know someone thinking of selling? Forwarding this is the nicest intro you could make. |
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— Nishant
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Nishant Sehgal, eXp Realty of California, Inc. — Pete Middleton Luxury Team, 848 N Prospect St, La Jolla, CA 92037 · CA DRE #02041253 You’re getting this mid-month edition of The San Diego Brief because you opened or clicked the first one. Don’t want it? Unsubscribe — one click or reply “remove” and he’ll take you off personally. ⌂ Equal Housing Opportunity |
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