how low could the correction be
got this from Manhattan Beach Confidential
Housing prices could drop by half. This is part of a paper prepared by Robert Shiller (Yale economist who is credited with calling the dot-com bust) for the Kansas City Fed for this weekend's Jackson Hole conference. Click here to go to the conference website; the Shiller paper is the second on the list of downloads.
Money quote: [T]he examples we have of past cycles indicate that major declines in real home prices – even 50% declines in some places – are entirely possible going forward from today or from the not too distant future. Such price declines have happened before. In the last cycle in the United States... real home prices fell only 15% from the peak in the third quarter of 1989 to the fourth quarter of 1996, but some cities' real prices fell much more. Los Angeles real home prices fell 42% from the peak in December 1989 to the trough in March 1997.
Housing prices could drop by half. This is part of a paper prepared by Robert Shiller (Yale economist who is credited with calling the dot-com bust) for the Kansas City Fed for this weekend's Jackson Hole conference. Click here to go to the conference website; the Shiller paper is the second on the list of downloads.
Money quote: [T]he examples we have of past cycles indicate that major declines in real home prices – even 50% declines in some places – are entirely possible going forward from today or from the not too distant future. Such price declines have happened before. In the last cycle in the United States... real home prices fell only 15% from the peak in the third quarter of 1989 to the fourth quarter of 1996, but some cities' real prices fell much more. Los Angeles real home prices fell 42% from the peak in December 1989 to the trough in March 1997.
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